Which pace to pick in Berlin?

For context, I am 39 M, 75 kg, 1.81 m, and Berlin will be my 5th marathon.

I did

Caen – June 2024 – 3:29

New York – Nov 2024 – 3:12

Tokyo – March 2025 – 3:08

Florence – Nov 2025 – 3:04

I usually run my marathon around 161-62 bpm. LT2 HR is around 171. My Max HR 183-185

I actually was super fit for Florence, did a 32km long run with 20km at 4:10/km pace and it felt easy, comfortable 3 weeks before. I did a hilly HM (Rome) in 1h26 3 weeks before.

2 days after, big pain on my ankle, which was sore for some weeks to be honest.

It was a tibial tendinitis and I decided to take almost the last 3 weeks off and try Florence anyway. Did some biking but not enough probably… and ran Florence hurt, managed to hold 31 km at 4:10 but then had some cramps and could only slow down for 4:35-4:45/km… not a total collapse but probably lost some muscular endurance during my last 3 weeks.

The injury I had did not get better and it was still present for most of the first part of 2026, I had to DNS Sevilla and another marathon…

I was picked for Berlin so I decided I should start training nonetheless because it is such an opportunity. I will run it anyway but mostly cross the idea of a PB and the sub 3 dream of my mind.

The whole training was not really enjoyable, painful Comeback to volume, and I had a very big warning 5-6 weeks into the training when both of my calves had inflammation.

Luckily it was nice weather so I switched to bike and did only 21 km running that week but 226km biking.

After that, it somehow got fix, and I managed to increase the mileage bit by bit and actually achieved a 91km week, which is the highest weekly mileage I ever done for a full week. I did more on rolling days.

Big workouts

The main workout I did are attached:

Last week:

– 4×3 km – 1km r : average 4:04/km – 4:04/km – 3:59/km

– 32km – at the 16th km – 2km 4:25/km – 2km 4:20 – 5km 4:15 – 2km 4:03

2 weeks before:

– 3x2km 2'30 recovery – avg 3:59/km – 3:57 – 3:55

– 32km – at the 13th km – 17 km at 4:15

Overall I feel my fitness has increased and all sessions were successful, but I am not feeling THAT fit. Especially compare to Florence… at the same time I am not injured. So it is better this way. 😅

Now, asking around, I feel I have 3 choice:

– aim for 3h- starting at 4:15/km and see how it goes after 10-15km

– aim for a PB and start at 4:20 – see if I can push at km 30-32

– pure base on feel

What would be your recommendation base on that?

Thanks anyway for reading