Analysis of upcoming Bosnia and Herzegovina elections.

On October 4 this year in BiH will be held elections for offices presidency,national and entity parlaments(Federation of BiH and Republika Srpska).This is my analysis.

Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

On teritory of Federation of BiH(entity mainly inhabited by Bosniaks and Croats which is 51% of teritory of BiH and is divided in 10 cantons,of which 4 are majority Croat and 6 are majority Bosniak) besides their repsesntatives in entity and national parlament will be chosen Bosniak and Croat member presidency(office remanent from aged of communism),president of Federation will be chosen by parlament and he will be most likely Croat,because Bosniak will most likely be Prime Minister.

Among Bosniaks incumbent Denis Bećirevic from SDP(Social Democratic Party-like majority of SocDem parties in Eastern Europe it’s sucsessor of communist party)is favored to get reelected against former member of presidency Bakir Izetbegović(son of Bosniak wartime leader Alija Izetbegović) who he beat in 2022.Izetbegovic leads SDA(Party of Democratic Action),right wing,conservative,nationalist and islamist party founded by his father,SDA between 1990 and 2022was in power all but four years and during that time they are(2000-2002,2012-14),and during that time they were part of big corruption which is reason why Izetbegovic lost to Becierević in 2022.Besides Izetbegovic and Becirevic in race are Fahurdin Radoncic(leader of SBB and owner od media Company Avaz,biggest media in BiH) and Semir Efedic,major of one of Sarajevo municipalities leader of SBiH(Party for BiH,unitarist conservative party founded Haris Silajzic wartime prime minister and Bosniak member of presidency 2006-2010).Besides SPD Becirevic is endorsed by Our Party(liberal party with strenght in Sarajevo),NIP(People and Justice,party led by incumbent BiH foreign minister Elmedin Konakovic who was previously member of SDA, but also some smaller regional parties which are founded after splits in SDA like:PDA,NES,BHI,Forward.With Radoncić and Efendić taking more votes from Izetbegović than from Bećirević,Becirević will have easy time of winning,probably by double digits.Him winning of level of presidency will probably have coattails effect of level of national and federal parlament for rulling coalition.Incumbet PM of Federation Nermin Nikšić who is also leader of SDP will stay in office.

Among Croats will will have two way race with possibility of candidate mainly voted by Bosniaks getting elected again,let me explain.First we have Darijana Filipović who’s candidate of HDZ BiH(Croatian Democratic Party of Bosnia and Herzegovina,main part of Bosnian Croats and sister party of Croatia’s HDZ and member of EPP),she is current member of national parlament and person close to HDZ leader Dragan Čović,former member of presidency(2002-2005,2014-2018).Her main opponent is Zdenko Lučić,former HVO military officer from 90s war,bussinesman and lawyer who is independent.He is supppprted by Croat opposition led by HDZ 1990(party founded by splinter from HDZ in 2006),HNS,HSS…There is Slaven Kovačević,candidate of majority Bosniak Democratic Front,party who’s leader Željko Komsic is current and term limited Croat member of presidency.Komsic is elected in 2006,2010,2018 and 2022 by votes of Bosniaks.Because of fact that in Federation you can vote for either Bosniak of Croat member(not for both at same time) regardless of your nation,and fact that Bosniaks outnumbering Croats for Komsic was easy to win without Croat votes.Caused lot of tension in Bosnia and between Bosnia and Croatia.Slaven Kovačević hopes he can repeat what Komsic did but with fact than in race among Bosniaks SDA(party which Democratic Front is pupet) need every vote to win chance is way less likely.Darijana Filipovic is slightly favored.

Republika Srpska

Most Important office in Republika Srpska(entity which has 49% teritory,majority of populated by Serbs) most important office is president,also on same ballot as President gets elected two Vice Presidents,one Bosniak and one Croat,both chosen among presidental candidates best ranked among these two etnic groups.

Since earlier this year president of Republika Srpska is Siniša Karan from SNSD(Aliance of Indpendent Social Democrats led by Milorad Dodik).Karan is chosen to replace Milorad Dodik SNSD leader removed by High Representative last year who is still largely in power.Dodik was originaly reformist leader who in mid 2000s became very nationalistic and pro-Russian,not much because of his views but because it’s popular among Serbs and it’s was his way to stay in power and became very rich trought corruption.Karan is not running for reelection and candidate of SNSD their satelite parties(SPS,DNS,DEMOS,US) is incument Prime Minister Savo Minić.SNSD main opposition has their face in SDS(Serbian Democratic Party),party founded by Radovan Karadžić,fist Republika Srpska president during the war who is in UK prison for war crimes.SDS is way more moderate party today than it was during Karadžić years but fact that he is still member of that party gives them still lot of votes.SDS candidate is Branko Blanusa,profesor on University of Banja Luka,who get suprasingly close in race against Karan last year.Blanusa is supported by PDP,ZPR and National Front leb by Jelena Trivic opposition candidate for president in 2022.Race is expected to be close and Blanusa has real shot.Besides that there will be intresting race for Bosniak VP among Incumbet Ćamil Durakovic who is independent and former VP Ramiz Salkić from SDA.

Then there is very complicated race for Serb member od presidency.First there is SNSD candidate icumbent Željka Cvijanović,Dodik’s loyalist and former prime minister of Srpska.She is long time politics but she is also gaffe machine and Dodik’s puppet.Oposition is Srpska doesn’t one candidate but two.First is Marinko Bozovic,SDS member and mayor of Istočna Ilidza.Bozovic altrough is SDS member is very close to Draško Stanivukovic,mayor of Banja Luka nd leader of PDP(Party of Democratic progres).PDP is founded by Mladen Ivanic former Srpska Prime Minister and member of presidency(2014-2018),and PDP is stronf i western part od Srpska unlike SDS who’s main stronghold is Eastern part.Since he baceme major in 2020,there is lot rumors of him being close to Dodik and his agent in oppostion.He pretty much sabotaged attempt get Nebojša Vukanović leader of ZPR(for Justice and Order centrist party with strenght in Herzegovina in southeastern part od Srpska)as one unifiying candidate of oppsotion so Vukanović is running without his support.Vukanovic history profesor and former journalist who’s curently in member of Srpska Assembly is also support PDP breakaway faction PDP Republike Srpske led by Igor Crnadak,former BiH Foreign Minister and with Vukanović person most critical of Dodik in opposition.SDS led by Blanusa is very weak in recent years so they nominated Stanivukovic friendly Bozovic over Vukanović,but strongest fraction in SDS led by Bjeljina major Ljubiša Petrović is supporting Vukanović.Despites this Vukanović still support Blanusa.Due to split among oposition Cvijanović is favored but Vukanović who is pretty much guaranted to get more votes than Bozovic can make upset,partialy because he can appeal to some Bosniaks(who are 13% of Srpska population) because he manages despite him being very nationalistic he manages to build image of fighter against corruption and someone who works for all people regardless of their nation and him being critical of Isreal(contrary to Dodik who is very pro-Israel).

Race for parlament will be close in number of seats and prime minister probably will be decided by who wins office od President.