An unrealistic scenario for the final MotoGP riders’ standings, 2026

Why is that unrealistic? Because it assumes that none of the top four riders will crash even once in the remaining 10 races.

And now I’ll explain a little about the forecasting methodology used.

I started with MM93’s results, as he had the largest amount of data out of all four drivers. Why only 4?

Because, as a fan of MM93, I wasn’t interested in what happened to the others in the standings.

I have therefore divided MM93’s career into three parts, as follows:

– 2013–2019: the results from these 10 remaining races account for 40% of the final forecast

– 2020–2023, accounting for just 10%, given the serious injury in 2020 and the Honda bike’s significant lack of performance.

– 2024–2025, accounting for 50%, the Ducati period.

It should be noted that we have only considered races in which MM93 saw the chequered flag, omitting DNF, DNS and DSQ races

As I mentioned earlier, as a fan of MM93, I’ve pushed the data somewhat to tell the story I’m hoping for, as follows:

– Qatar & Valencia: slightly optimistic

– Mandalika, Sepang & Portimão: highly optimistic.

As for JM89, it was a bit trickier to predict, given that he won the championship on a Ducati, whilst last year he was largely side-lined by injury, so the data for him isn’t particularly reliable.

With MB72, perhaps I was a little too optimistic with my predicted results, but I must admit he’s a rider to be reckoned with.

Ai, being the least experienced of the lot, has largely had to settle for the best remaining spot after the top three in most cases.

As it’s difficult for me to be objective, it’s clear that this isn’t a serious exercise, so please treat it as such.